LogIn"Someone didn’t do their homework."
Image credit: Larian Studios
The FTC vs. Microsoft trial around the Activision acquisition is a great time to learn delicious behind-the-scenes details about the game industry. This time, a document from 2022 was uncovered, which showed Microsoft's expectations from then-upcoming game releases and how much their publishers would ask for to get the titles on Xbox Game Pass from day one.
While this is a fascinating insight into the company overall, the game that stirred players is Baldur's Gate 3. According to the document, Microsoft didn't expect much from it, branding it a "second-run Stadia RPG" (yes, it had been released for the cloud service before it was shut down) and thinking Larian would want around $5 million to put the game on Game Pass. And this might sound like a lot but it is the lowest range in the list.
For contrast, here are some of Microsoft's estimations for other games:
- Star Wars Jedi Survivor – $300 million
- Suicide Squad – $250 million
- Mortal Kombat 1 - $250 million
- Assassin's Creed Rift – $100 million
- Gotham Knights – $30 million
- Dying Light 2 – $50 million
- LEGO Star Wars – $35 million
- GTA V – $12-$15 million/month
- Red Dead Redemption 2 – $5 million/month
The leak spread quickly, and Larian's head Swen Vincke responded with "I'd love to meet that analyst." He didn't agree with the list, saying, "That’s really misguided. Someone didn’t do their homework."
In Microsoft's defense, as Larian's Director of Publishing Michael Douse said, no one expected Baldur's Gate 3 to be such a massive hit, even the developers themselves, even a day before release. There wasn't much data out there. I still wouldn't put it so low on the list though: it's a game in a popular franchise from the studio behind Divinity: Original Sin with a pretty successful early access launch after all.
Plus, as David Gaider, the Dragon Age creator who also worked on Baldur's Gate 2, pointed out, there is demand for fantasy RPGs, which is still often overlooked.
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