As Steam continues to grow more competitive, wishlists have become one of the industry’s most closely watched indicators of potential success. But according to Co-Managing Directors Roman Gurskiy and Kirill Gurskiy of international investment firm GEM Capital, raw wishlist numbers alone rarely tell the full story.

In this interview, the two investors explain how publishers and investors actually evaluate Steam performance, why positioning and genre selection often matter more than developers realize, and what separates games that successfully convert attention into long-term traction.

From an investment perspective, how important are Steam wishlists as a leading indicator of success, and what thresholds or signals do you typically look for?

Roman Gurskiy, Managing Director: Wishlists matter.

For premium games, there are very few indicators that can signal potential success:

• Wishlists
• Trailer views and likes
• Player comments
• Playtest feedback
• Press coverage
• Influencer reactions
• Google Trends dynamics

Wishlists aren’t a perfect metric, but out of all of these, they’re the most straightforward and the most important one.

For a long time, some publishers didn’t like projects with existing wishlists because it meant the game had already been announced and they’d prefer to control the announcement themselves. These days, that mostly applies only to very large tier-1 publishers. Everyone else is perfectly happy to pick up an already announced game with a strong wishlist count. The same goes for investors.

Based on what we’re currently seeing at GEM Capital, I’d say that hitting 100,000 wishlists or more is a level that opens a lot of doors, especially if you put that number directly in the subject line of an email or a LinkedIn message to an investor or publisher.

That’s the simplified version. But it’s similar to YouTube trailer views. You often see developers celebrating a million views on a new trailer. Many people will look at that number and stop there, but won’t check the likes. A million views with 1K likes isn’t really a strong million.

So after the absolute number of wishlists, the details start to matter:

• What does the regional split look like? A large share from tier-1 countries is great. If it’s mostly from lower purchasing power regions, that’s worse.
• How long and how many beats did it take to get there? If it’s from 1 to 2 trailers, great. If it took years and a constant stream of updates, less impressive.
• Is it organic or paid? If it’s all organic, great. If it’s paid, then it depends on the cost per wishlist.
• What’s the cost per wishlist? $1 is amazing. $20, why even do it?
• Is this already after the Steam Next Fest demo, or before it? If it’s before, that’s even better.

To call the result strong, all of these components need to line up.

The data suggests that most indie games launch with relatively low wishlist counts, while only a small percentage break through at scale. What separates games that achieve strong wishlist momentum from those that struggle?

Kirill Gurskiy, Managing Director: In many cases, it comes down to:

• Choosing the right niche
• A strong, original core idea
• Solid execution
• A high-quality trailer
• Picking the right place for the announcement

When it comes to how the game is presented, the most successful titles communicate their core concept immediately. Players can quickly understand what the game is, why it is compelling, and who it is for. As the saying goes, you rarely get a second chance to make a first impression. In today’s fast-paced environment, this is especially critical.

It’s also very important where the trailer is shown. Ideally, it should be one of the well-known showcases.

But overall, I’d say that what really separates successful titles is that they think everything through from the very beginning. They clearly define their niche, their competitors, and their unique selling point (USP).

Most failures don’t happen because of a bad trailer. They happen because the project simply wasn’t needed by the market in the first place.

How should developers think about wishlist velocity vs. total wishlist count when preparing for launch? In other words, is amassing a ton of wishlists too far in advance bad? Should devs aim to accelerate wishlisting just before launch?

Roman Gurskiy: It’s hard to say that collecting a ton of wishlists can ever be a bad result. Let’s be honest: that’s the dream for any developer. Getting a large number of wishlists is great. Getting them right before launch is even better.

A high wishlist count is often driven by some kind of viral effect, and that’s very hard to predict. In practice, you rarely know which specific effort will actually deliver results. Sometimes what the team believes is their best trailer goes unnoticed, while something they initially saw as a minor beat ends up performing really well.

In our experience, it’s better to start marketing earlier so you have time for multiple shots on goal, ideally at least a year before launch. Then just keep trying, iterating, and testing.

As for driving wishlist activity right before launch, the most effective tool is releasing a demo.

Many indie games fail not because of quality, but because of positioning and discoverability. What are the most common mistakes you see when studios present their game on Steam?

Kirill Gurskiy: The most common issue is a lack of clarity when players can’t immediately understand what the game is. Other frequent problems include weak art, trailers that delay showing gameplay, and a lack of clear differentiation. Often, the presentation feels generic and doesn’t stand out. With tens of thousands of games launching each year, it’s critical for players to quickly see what makes a title distinctive.

In many cases, the game itself may be solid, but the presentation fails to communicate its value effectively. But I’d say that most mistakes actually happen long before the Steam page is created, at the idea stage.

A lot of projects are essentially born dead because the authors never really thought about who they are making the game for. When making decisions, you need a very clear understanding of the niche and your key USPs, and you have to be realistic about your capabilities. USPs should be clear and easy to understand, and there should not be many of them. No more than three. If you can’t quickly explain your USPs, it’s probably worth reconsidering the idea.

It is important to note that USPs are not limited to gameplay. In our experience, among all key components of games, indie developers often pay the least attention to sound and music. And yet, this can often be a game-changer.

Here are just a few examples of our portfolio studios working with well-known composers:

• Kevin Penkin and The Eternal Life of Goldman
• Mick Gordon and Atomic Heart
• David Wise and Nikoderiko: The Magical World
• Paul Romero and Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era

All of these examples had a positive impact on the attention the games received. These projects also worked with many other extremely talented composers, but having well-known names helps attract additional attention.

How important is it to clearly communicate genre, hook, and target audience immediately on a Steam page? What are the best ways to achieve that?

Roman Gurskiy: Today, the competition for players’ attention is immense. If a player doesn’t understand the game within a few seconds, they are unlikely to engage further.

The most effective Steam pages communicate genre, core gameplay, and unique appeal within the first few seconds of the trailer and through the opening visuals. There is very little tolerance for ambiguity. We already talked about how important USPs are. And those USPs should be clear immediately.

From your perspective, how much do genre selection and market trends impact wishlist potential compared to execution?

Kirill Gurskiy: Genre selection is very important. The key things to look at are:

• How much money is in this genre? A lot of money is good, little money is bad.
• What is the trajectory? Growing is good, declining is bad.
• How concentrated are the successful titles? One dominant game taking most of the money in the genre is bad, multiple successful titles is good.
• How often do new successful titles appear? Frequent new hits is good, if only established franchises dominate, that’s bad.
• How often do strong games in this genre become commercial failures? Rare failures are good, frequent failures are bad.
• How much differentiation is possible within the genre?
• How well does your team actually understand the genre? Strong understanding is good, thinking you understand it is bad.

At the same time, genre and market trends are not everything. If market niche alone determined success, we would never have seen highly successful titles about fishing or a detective simulator with an existential crisis.

Execution is king. With outstanding execution, you can make a successful game even in a very difficult genre. But your chances are higher if you combine the right niche with strong execution.

And it is still much easier to raise money from investors and publishers if you can clearly explain why you made the business decision to build a game in that genre.

There’s a lot of debate around what drives wishlists today. Based on your experience, what are the most reliable channels for generating traction—content creators, festivals, press, or something else?

Roman Gurskiy: In practice, you never really know what exactly will work and trigger a viral effect. That’s why we recommend starting your marketing campaign at least a year before release and just trying, testing and iterating as much as possible.

In GEM Capital’s portfolio, we have examples of games that jumped straight to the top of the wishlist charts from their very first trailer (the recent example is ILL by Mundfish Powerhouse and Team Clout), and we also have examples of games that steadily climbed their way to the top over time.

I would say that from our experience, the most important things are:

• The announcement trailer
• The demo
• Consistent work in-between

Trailers often lead to explosive wishlist growth for many games, and there are plenty of examples of that. But there are many variables here, especially for indie games:

• Which showcase is it? Participation in the ones that consistently attract large audiences is expensive. Usually, there are some free slots, but it is very hard to get them.
• What other titles are on the showcase? If there are not enough strong trailers, the showcase gets less attention. If there are too many strong ones, yours might get overlooked.
• Where are you placed in the showcase? If you are early, great. If you are at the end, it depends on the lineup. If the other trailers are weak, viewers may not even stay until your game appears. If they are strong, your game might still get lost in the noise.

In our experience, the most stable effect comes from the demo.

Steam events like Next Fest are often seen as pivotal moments. What separates teams that successfully convert these opportunities into wishlist growth from those that don’t?

Kirill Gurskiy: It comes down to two main things:

• A strong wishlist foundation before the demo
• A high-quality demo

Even the most outstanding demo can go unnoticed if there is no prior groundwork. Every year, the number of demos at Next Fest increases, and player attention becomes more fragmented. Time is limited, and it is impossible to try everything. That’s why it is crucial for a game to already have visibility before the demo goes live.

The foundation for a successful demo is built through consistent work from the announcement trailer up to release. This ongoing work includes:

• Dev updates and developer diaries
• Q&A sessions
• New trailers
• Regular short-form videos on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram Reels

This is a lot of work, and you have to be ready for the fact that not everything will bring immediate results. Some things won’t show results at all. And that’s normal. You shouldn’t get discouraged. You just need to keep doing it. And if you stay consistent and do it well, it will pay off.

What we see in practice is that many of the studios in our portfolio consistently work in this direction and publish short YouTube Shorts, TikToks, and Reels. It’s not uncommon for these videos to get around 3-10K views on average, but occasionally one of them can reach 100K views or more.

From recent examples in GEM Capital’s portfolio, we can share the following:

• Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era by Unfrozen participated in the September Steam Next Fest. At the time, its demo became the 16th most popular in Steam history and remains #1 among strategy games.
• REPLACED by Sad Cat Studios and The Eternal Life of Goldman by Weappy participated in the recent February Steam Fest. Both games entered the top 1% of most popular demos with ratings around 90%.

As a result of Next Fest, all three games saw a significant boost in wishlists. Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era was in the top 10 by wishlists just before launch, REPLACED was in the top 30, and The Eternal Life of Goldman is in the top 150. All of them continue to grow every day.

For all three projects, the biggest boost came from Next Fest.

What about Steam sales for launching? Or post-launch timing around big updates or DLC drops?

Roman Gurskiy: We would reduce the choice of release timing to the following rules:

• You don’t release a new game during sales (both Steam-wide sales and major publisher or thematic sales).
• You don’t release a new game during festivals (Next Fest and others).
• You don’t release a new game near major hits (GTA VI, etc).

At the same time, a launch discount for your own game at release is a good practice. It helps maximize day-one sales, increases visibility and ultimately supports the game’s long-tail sales.

Wishlist growth often comes down to conversion. What makes a high-performing Steam page in terms of visuals, trailers, and messaging?

Kirill: We would highlight the following:

• The short description clearly communicates all key USPs immediately
• Tags are set up correctly
• Trailers show gameplay quickly
• Screenshots are high quality
• The page is clear, concise, and visually easy to read
• If there are achievements, they should be highlighted
• The core audience specifics are taken into account

No game resonates with every player. It is essential for developers to understand their target audience and tailor the presentation to appeal to them.

How important is it to design a game that is inherently “watchable” or “streamable,” and how does that factor into wishlist growth?

Roman Gurskiy: This is very important today.

People often discover games not directly from trailers, but from influencers reacting to those trailers.

Even major showcases are often watched not directly, but through the reactions of a favorite streamer they trust or find entertaining.

A clear example is that in the top 200 most wishlisted games, there are many cases where the trailers themselves do not reach hundreds of thousands or millions of views, while influencer reaction videos do.

Recently, even entire genres have gained popularity mainly through influencers, especially “friend slop” and meme-driven games. To increase the chances of a game going viral with content creators, it is important to think from the start about what will make it easy for them to react to and share.

We’ve seen cases where traffic is high, but conversion is low. What are the key reasons players visit a page but don’t wishlist?

Kirill Gurskiy: This means that players saw some content about the game that they liked, but when they visited the Steam page, they didn’t like what they saw.

This situation usually happens for two main reasons:

• From the content players saw before visiting the page (trailer, short video, banner, reaction), it is not clear what the game is actually about.
• The Steam page itself is poorly presented.

We already discussed Steam page quality above. As for game-related video content, a good trailer should not only attract an audience, but also attract the right audience for the game and clearly communicate what the game actually is.

Something that is rarely discussed is that the same applies to key art. It should accurately reflect what is in the game. If you show a car, players will assume there are vehicles in the game. If you show a pile of skulls, players will assume there is a lot of combat or killing. If you show a character that suggests romance or relationships, players will assume there are romantic elements in the game.

And if all of that is shown in the key art but not actually in the game, it creates a mismatch in expectations and leads to player disappointment.

When should developers launch their Steam page—early to build momentum, or closer to release to concentrate attention?

Roman Gurskiy: For the vast majority of games, the answer is simple: earlier is better.

The Steam page should definitely be live by the time of the first trailer. Otherwise, you end up in a situation where people see the game but cannot wishlist it, and they simply forget about it. There are several examples of games where this happened: videos with millions of views that did not convert into wishlists. They learned this lesson the hard way.

You never know what will actually work, so it is better to plan at least a year for marketing and try as many approaches as possible. You can always re-engage the audience that added the game to their wishlist early when the demo is released.

From an investor standpoint, what are the biggest signals that a team understands how to succeed commercially on Steam, not just creatively?

Kirill Gurskiy: As investors, we look for teams that are not only talented creators but also capable of turning that into a successful business. When teams pitch a new project, we ask simple but important business questions, for example:

• Why are you making this game specifically?
• How do you plan to sell it?

The answers to these questions already give a strong signal. In terms of more objective criteria, we look at:

• The team’s track record. If they have already released successful titles, they have proven a lot.
• If they are planning to self-publish, a detailed marketing plan with measurable KPIs at each stage.
• If they are planning to work with a publisher, a signed publishing deal with a reputable publisher.
• And again, the number and quality of wishlists. If a team has reached a solid number on its own, that says a lot.

Steam has become increasingly crowded, with thousands of games launching each year. How do you see the platform evolving in terms of discoverability and competition?

Roman Gurskiy: At the moment, Steam is the best platform in terms of discoverability.

From what we observe, Steam has recently been moving in a direction where it distributes traffic to a larger number of games than before.

This is visible in the number of participants and featured titles in recent Steam Next Fest events, as well as in wishlist growth patterns. More games are being featured now than just a few years ago. And if earlier only a few “winners” of a festival would capture most of the platform’s wishlists, today even the most popular titles tend to reach a ceiling of around 100,000 to 300,000 wishlists, with attention spread across many more games.
This is beneficial for the indie scene.

Looking ahead, what trends or shifts do you think will define successful indie launches over the next few years?

Kirill Gurskiy: We would highlight three main trends that are shaping indie development:

1. The rising cost of game development
2. The growing role of games in pop culture
3. AI

Starting with the rising cost of development, somewhat surprisingly, this actually has a positive effect on the indie scene. Recently, it was reported that AAA game budgets in the United States and Europe can now reach around $300 million. In some more cost-efficient regions, it can be done more cheaply. But imagine you are an investor and you have a choice between making one AAA game for, say, $100 million or ten high-quality indie games for $10 million each. What would you choose?

The indie scene consistently produces major hits whose sales are comparable to AAA titles. And the rising cost of AAA development is increasing investor interest in the indie space.

Regarding the growing role of games in pop culture, at GEM Capital we like to say that games are becoming the “new Marvel”. Just a few years ago, the main pop culture phenomena were superhero movies and TV shows. And what is it now? Just a few examples: Arcane, The Last of Us, Fallout, Cyberpunk: Edgerunners, The Witcher, Devil May Cry. The list goes on.

This growing presence of games in pop culture creates additional ways to monetize IP. A successful game now generates revenue not only from game sales themselves.

As for AI, its impact is still very hard to assess, and trying to evaluate it definitively is not very productive. On the one hand, it reduces development costs. On the other hand, people are losing jobs, and gamers currently have a very negative attitude toward AI. We have already seen cases where awards were taken away from games after it was revealed that AI was used in development. Some reputable publishers have also publicly stated that they will not work with studios using AI.  

Having a strong vision and the ability to create something you’ve never seen before becomes even more important. AI cannot create something truly original-looking. Only people can. Overall, AI’s impact is difficult to quantify, but it is already significant; it will become even more significant. We will almost certainly see a lot more drama surrounding it.

Kirill and Roman Gurskiy, Co-Managing Directors at Investment Firm GEM Capital

Interview conducted by David Jagneaux

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