The Witcher 4 Will Cost CDPR Nearly $800 Million, an Analyst Says
That's almost 10 times as much as they'd spent on The Witcher 3.
It appears that regardless of the quality and entertainment value The Witcher 4 ultimately delivers, the long-awaited continuation of the beloved franchise is already set to break at least one record for CD Projekt – namely its production budget, with Polish analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski estimating the game could easily cost its creator more than all of the studio's previous titles combined.
CDPR
According to Mateusz's calculations, factoring in CD Projekt's own statement that The Witcher 4 won't launch in 2026 and assuming a release in the fourth quarter of 2027, the game's total production budget would be around PLN 2.8 billion – 1.4 billion for development and 1.4 billion for marketing – which converts to over $780 million.
Stating the obvious, the analyst's estimate can easily be classified as "astronomical," placing the new franchise installment among the most expensive video games of all time. To compare it to CDPR's own catalog, their costliest project to date, Cyberpunk 2077 (base game only, excluding Phantom Liberty), came in at roughly $335 million – an impressive sum in and of itself that still amounts to less than half of what is supposedly planned for The Witcher 4.
The contrast becomes even more staggering when the $780 million is compared to the $81 million CD Projekt spent on The Witcher 3, nearly a tenfold difference (a sevenfold difference, when adjusted for inflation). And to make it seem even more gargantuan, consider that Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 – 2025's Game of the Year and a title practically everyone has heard of – cost its developer only $10 million, pocket change lost in the couch cushions by comparison.
If we assume the calculation is even remotely close to the actual number, the question immediately becomes whether CDPR will actually be able to recoup the cost and make a profit from the game, or if, ten years from now, we'll be describing The Witcher 4's budget as "reckless spending on CD Projekt's part."
On one hand, the success of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077, as well as CDPR essentially replacing Bethesda as the Go-To Developer of Janky Action-Adventures with RPG Mechanics That Are Far From Perfect But Will Keep You Hooked for Hundreds of Hours, all but ensures that the studio's next title will sell well, no matter what they deliver.
On the other, factors like the team using a new engine for TW4, the story not being based on the original books, the team's uncertainty over how to top The Witcher 3, and Ciri taking over as protagonist instead of Geralt do introduce risks and act as proverbial flies in the ointment, making the game's success very likely but not guaranteed.
Don't forget to subscribe to our Newsletter and join our 80 Level Talent platform, follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Telegram, and Instagram, where we share breakdowns, the latest news, awesome artworks, and more.
